What is wrong with my numbers?
After watching "21" I learned about independent and dependent events. If you play blackjack with " shoe " the future deals are dependent of the past deals not the same if the house is using a "shuffle machine" future is merely dependent of past; dealer are instructed to have less than a full pack of discarded cards.
With a dice is the same, past rolls have nothing to do with future rolls unless there is a bias therefore if you got a 1d6 you got 16.67% to get a 1,2,3,4,5,and 6 (formula, ( 1/(dice faces))X100)
You can try it by you own and after several rolls you may get a false sense of a tendency for a number and that is pure luck because in the long run the chance to get a 1 in a 1dx is the same of getting x in the same 1dx dice. That is related to the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS something briefly explained in the same movie.
I tried this basic concept for a question related to damage power of weapons with different characteristics and got a result that goes against perceived common knowledge.
I am not a mathematician so I will present my variables, formulas, result an conclusion and you be the judge of it. Please avoid childish arguments that basically said "Is not that way because I do not like it ". I like to be corrected if wrong.
Some insight about the weapons (BTW those are weapons of a game, DDO) and characteristics.
Variables:
Attack Roll=A roll of a 1d20
DICE: weapon damage dice
DICE roll result: # you get rolling the DICE
CR: Critical Range; numbers that in a 1d20 will multiply your DICE roll result x Multi. REMEMBER each number in the CR represents 5% so if you got a CR of 20 you got 5% to roll a critical every single roll.
Multi: If you get CR this is the value that you will multiply your DICE roll result
Weapons/ DICE/ CR/ Multi
Scimitar /1d6 /18-20/ 2
Khopesh/1d8/19-20/2
Bastard Sword/1d10/19-20/2
Now lets get to the Chart. This chart is for a 100 rolls.
Chart variables are the same as before but:
SWD: Scimitar weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(6))*100
KWD: Khopesh weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(8))*100
BWD:Bastard weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(10))*100
TWO: Total weapon output=SUM of the weapon damage for each weapon.
CSWD: Corrected Scimitar Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)
CKWD: Corrected khopesh Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)
CBWD: Corrected bastard Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)
CTWO: Corrected total weapon output=This is the real weapon damage expected output for 100 rolls.
Conclusion:
Against my perception Bastard sword is the best one handed sword available at DDO
My questions are:
Is this correct?
Is the khopesh the real king of swords?
Is the scimitar better than the Bastard?
For your review
With a dice is the same, past rolls have nothing to do with future rolls unless there is a bias therefore if you got a 1d6 you got 16.67% to get a 1,2,3,4,5,and 6 (formula, ( 1/(dice faces))X100)
You can try it by you own and after several rolls you may get a false sense of a tendency for a number and that is pure luck because in the long run the chance to get a 1 in a 1dx is the same of getting x in the same 1dx dice. That is related to the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS something briefly explained in the same movie.
I tried this basic concept for a question related to damage power of weapons with different characteristics and got a result that goes against perceived common knowledge.
I am not a mathematician so I will present my variables, formulas, result an conclusion and you be the judge of it. Please avoid childish arguments that basically said "Is not that way because I do not like it ". I like to be corrected if wrong.
Some insight about the weapons (BTW those are weapons of a game, DDO) and characteristics.
Variables:
Attack Roll=A roll of a 1d20
DICE: weapon damage dice
DICE roll result: # you get rolling the DICE
CR: Critical Range; numbers that in a 1d20 will multiply your DICE roll result x Multi. REMEMBER each number in the CR represents 5% so if you got a CR of 20 you got 5% to roll a critical every single roll.
Multi: If you get CR this is the value that you will multiply your DICE roll result
Weapons/ DICE/ CR/ Multi
Scimitar /1d6 /18-20/ 2
Khopesh/1d8/19-20/2
Bastard Sword/1d10/19-20/2
Now lets get to the Chart. This chart is for a 100 rolls.
Chart variables are the same as before but:
SWD: Scimitar weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(6))*100
KWD: Khopesh weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(8))*100
BWD:Bastard weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(10))*100
TWO: Total weapon output=SUM of the weapon damage for each weapon.
CSWD: Corrected Scimitar Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)
CKWD: Corrected khopesh Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)
CBWD: Corrected bastard Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)
CTWO: Corrected total weapon output=This is the real weapon damage expected output for 100 rolls.
| DICE roll result | SWD | CR | Multi | CWSD | KWD | CR | Multi | CKWD | BWD | CR | Multi | CBWD |
| 1 | 16.67 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 21.67 | 12.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 16.25 | 10.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| 2 | 33.33 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 43.33 | 25.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 32.50 | 20.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 24.00 |
| 3 | 50.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 65.00 | 37.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 48.75 | 30.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 36.00 |
| 4 | 66.67 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 86.67 | 50.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 65.00 | 40.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 48.00 |
| 5 | 83.33 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 108.33 | 62.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 81.25 | 50.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 60.00 |
| 6 | 100.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 130.00 | 75.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 97.50 | 60.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 72.00 |
| 7 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 87.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 113.75 | 70.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 84.00 |
| 8 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 130.00 | 80.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 96.00 |
| 9 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 90.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 108.00 |
| 10 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 120.00 |
| TWO | 350.00 | 450.00 | 550.00 | |||||||||
| CTWO | 455.00 | 585.00 | 660.00 |
Conclusion:
Against my perception Bastard sword is the best one handed sword available at DDO
My questions are:
Is this correct?
Is the khopesh the real king of swords?
Is the scimitar better than the Bastard?
For your review
posted by velderve at 8:24 AM
1 comments
