Saturday, March 13, 2010

What is wrong with my numbers?

After watching "21" I learned about independent and dependent events. If you play blackjack with " shoe " the future deals are dependent of the past deals not the same if the house is using a "shuffle machine" future is merely dependent of past; dealer are instructed to have less than a full pack of discarded cards.

With a dice is the same, past rolls have nothing to do with future rolls unless there is a bias therefore if you got a 1d6 you got 16.67% to get a 1,2,3,4,5,and 6 (formula, ( 1/(dice faces))X100)
You can try it by you own and after several rolls you may get a false sense of a tendency for a number and that is pure luck because in the long run the chance to get a 1 in a 1dx is the same of getting x in the same 1dx dice. That is related to the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS something briefly explained in the same movie.

I tried this basic concept for a question related to damage power of weapons with different characteristics and got a result that goes against perceived common knowledge.

I am not a mathematician so I will present my variables, formulas, result an conclusion and you be the judge of it. Please avoid childish arguments that basically said "Is not that way because I do not like it ". I like to be corrected if wrong.

Some insight about the weapons (BTW those are weapons of a game, DDO) and characteristics.

Variables:

Attack Roll=A roll of a 1d20

DICE: weapon damage dice

DICE roll result: # you get rolling the DICE

CR: Critical Range; numbers that in a 1d20 will multiply your DICE roll result x Multi. REMEMBER each number in the CR represents 5% so if you got a CR of 20 you got 5% to roll a critical every single roll.

Multi: If you get CR this is the value that you will multiply your DICE roll result


Weapons/ DICE/ CR/ Multi

Scimitar /1d6 /18-20/ 2

Khopesh/1d8/19-20/2

Bastard Sword/1d10/19-20/2



Now lets get to the Chart. This chart is for a 100 rolls.

Chart variables are the same as before but:

SWD: Scimitar weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(6))*100

KWD: Khopesh weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(8))*100

BWD:Bastard weapon damage=( DICE roll result * 1/(10))*100

TWO: Total weapon output=SUM of the weapon damage for each weapon.

CSWD: Corrected Scimitar Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)

CKWD: Corrected khopesh Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)

CBWD: Corrected bastard Weapon Damage=((DICE roll result*((5xCR)/100)+DICE roll result)

CTWO: Corrected total weapon output=This is the real weapon damage expected output for 100 rolls.


DICE roll result SWD CR Multi CWSD KWD CR Multi CKWD BWD CR Multi CBWD
1 16.67 3.00 2.00 21.67 12.50 2.00 3.00 16.25 10.00 2.00 2.00 12.00
2 33.33 3.00 2.00 43.33 25.00 2.00 3.00 32.50 20.00 2.00 2.00 24.00
3 50.00 3.00 2.00 65.00 37.50 2.00 3.00 48.75 30.00 2.00 2.00 36.00
4 66.67 3.00 2.00 86.67 50.00 2.00 3.00 65.00 40.00 2.00 2.00 48.00
5 83.33 3.00 2.00 108.33 62.50 2.00 3.00 81.25 50.00 2.00 2.00 60.00
6 100.00 3.00 2.00 130.00 75.00 2.00 3.00 97.50 60.00 2.00 2.00 72.00
7 0.00 3.00 2.00 0.00 87.50 2.00 3.00 113.75 70.00 2.00 2.00 84.00
8 0.00 3.00 2.00 0.00 100.00 2.00 3.00 130.00 80.00 2.00 2.00 96.00
9 0.00 3.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 0.00 90.00 2.00 2.00 108.00
10 0.00 3.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 0.00 100.00 2.00 2.00 120.00
TWO 350.00


450.00


550.00


CTWO


455.00


585.00


660.00



Conclusion:

Against my perception Bastard sword is the best one handed sword available at DDO

My questions are:

Is this correct?

Is the khopesh the real king of swords?

Is the scimitar better than the Bastard?

For your review